NBA First home game after a road trip: Milwaukee Bucks: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 417 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 203-212-1 (48.9%)
Straight up: 249-168 (59.7%)
Over/under: 213-198-5 (51.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.44 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 112-119 (48.5%); 2018-2027: 91-93 (49.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2026 | 9-9 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 12-11 | 52.2% |
| 2024 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2023 | 11-9 | 55.0% |
| 2022 | 10-12 | 45.5% |
| 2021 | 10-10 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 13-5 | 72.2% |
| 2019 | 11-10 | 52.4% |
| 2018 | 8-18 | 30.8% |
| 2017 | 12-12 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 13-8 | 61.9% |
| 2015 | 12-15 | 44.4% |
| 2014 | 9-14 | 39.1% |
| 2013 | 10-16-1 | 38.5% |
| 2012 | 6-12 | 33.3% |
| 2011 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2010 | 16-8 | 66.7% |
| 2009 | 12-9 | 57.1% |
| 2008 | 11-13 | 45.8% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Milwaukee Bucks?
203-212-1 against the spread (48.9%) in 417 team-games since 2007-08, 249-168 straight up and 213-198-5 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 112-119 (48.5%); 2018-2027: 91-93 (49.5%).