NBA First home game after a road trip: Denver Nuggets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 383 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 183-196-4 (48.3%)
Straight up: 256-127 (66.8%)
Over/under: 186-191-6 (49.3% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.27 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.3%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 102-103 (49.8%); 2018-2027: 81-93 (46.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: DEN vs POR
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 9-12 | 42.9% |
| 2025 | 8-10 | 44.4% |
| 2024 | 9-9-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 13-8 | 61.9% |
| 2022 | 3-14 | 17.6% |
| 2021 | 6-11 | 35.3% |
| 2020 | 9-8 | 52.9% |
| 2019 | 15-10 | 60.0% |
| 2018 | 9-10 | 47.4% |
| 2017 | 11-9-1 | 55.0% |
| 2016 | 4-11-1 | 26.7% |
| 2015 | 6-14-1 | 30.0% |
| 2014 | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 2013 | 15-9 | 62.5% |
| 2012 | 10-7 | 58.8% |
| 2011 | 10-10 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 10-10 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 14-11 | 56.0% |
| 2008 | 13-11 | 54.2% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Denver Nuggets?
183-196-4 against the spread (48.3%) in 383 team-games since 2007-08, 256-127 straight up and 186-191-6 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.3%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 102-103 (49.8%); 2018-2027: 81-93 (46.6%).