NBA First home game after a road trip: Detroit Pistons: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 384 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 184-196-4 (48.4%)
Straight up: 183-201 (47.7%)
Over/under: 196-182-6 (51.9% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.26 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 107-111 (49.1%); 2018-2027: 77-85 (47.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 9-8 | 52.9% |
| 2025 | 7-9 | 43.8% |
| 2024 | 9-11-1 | 45.0% |
| 2023 | 8-10 | 44.4% |
| 2022 | 8-9-1 | 47.1% |
| 2021 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2020 | 7-11 | 38.9% |
| 2019 | 11-9 | 55.0% |
| 2018 | 9-9 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 10-8-1 | 55.6% |
| 2016 | 15-7 | 68.2% |
| 2015 | 13-8 | 61.9% |
| 2014 | 9-12 | 42.9% |
| 2013 | 8-12 | 40.0% |
| 2012 | 7-10 | 41.2% |
| 2011 | 12-13 | 48.0% |
| 2010 | 8-14-1 | 36.4% |
| 2009 | 9-15 | 37.5% |
| 2008 | 16-12 | 57.1% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Detroit Pistons?
184-196-4 against the spread (48.4%) in 384 team-games since 2007-08, 183-201 straight up and 196-182-6 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 107-111 (49.1%); 2018-2027: 77-85 (47.5%).