NBA First home game after a road trip: Los Angeles Lakers: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 342 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 167-168-7 (49.9%)
Straight up: 208-134 (60.8%)
Over/under: 154-185-3 (45.4% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.58 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.3%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 92-102 (47.4%); 2018-2027: 75-66 (53.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2026 | 10-6 | 62.5% |
| 2025 | 9-6 | 60.0% |
| 2024 | 4-11 | 26.7% |
| 2023 | 4-9-1 | 30.8% |
| 2022 | 12-5 | 70.6% |
| 2021 | 6-7-1 | 46.2% |
| 2020 | 11-3 | 78.6% |
| 2019 | 8-11-1 | 42.1% |
| 2018 | 10-7 | 58.8% |
| 2017 | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 10-8 | 55.6% |
| 2015 | 8-10-1 | 44.4% |
| 2014 | 7-10-1 | 41.2% |
| 2013 | 7-12 | 36.8% |
| 2012 | 10-10-1 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 9-12 | 42.9% |
| 2010 | 11-11 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 13-10 | 56.5% |
| 2008 | 10-12 | 45.5% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Los Angeles Lakers?
167-168-7 against the spread (49.9%) in 342 team-games since 2007-08, 208-134 straight up and 154-185-3 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.3%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 92-102 (47.4%); 2018-2027: 75-66 (53.2%).