NBA First home game after a road trip: Charlotte Hornets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 370 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 165-195-10 (45.8%)
Straight up: 175-195 (47.3%)
Over/under: 171-192-7 (47.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.74 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 92-116 (44.2%); 2018-2027: 73-79 (48.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 9-10 | 47.4% |
| 2025 | 6-11 | 35.3% |
| 2024 | 7-8-1 | 46.7% |
| 2023 | 7-10 | 41.2% |
| 2022 | 11-7-1 | 61.1% |
| 2021 | 6-7-1 | 46.2% |
| 2020 | 6-9-1 | 40.0% |
| 2019 | 10-6-1 | 62.5% |
| 2018 | 11-9 | 55.0% |
| 2017 | 10-9 | 52.6% |
| 2016 | 10-9-2 | 52.6% |
| 2015 | 8-15 | 34.8% |
| 2014 | 14-9-1 | 60.9% |
| 2013 | 8-13 | 38.1% |
| 2012 | 2-12 | 14.3% |
| 2011 | 9-13-1 | 40.9% |
| 2010 | 10-15 | 40.0% |
| 2009 | 11-10 | 52.4% |
| 2008 | 10-11-1 | 47.6% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Charlotte Hornets?
165-195-10 against the spread (45.8%) in 370 team-games since 2007-08, 175-195 straight up and 171-192-7 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 92-116 (44.2%); 2018-2027: 73-79 (48.0%).