NBA First home game after a road trip: Sacramento Kings: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 299 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 132-162-5 (44.9%)
Straight up: 138-161 (46.2%)
Over/under: 152-142-5 (51.7% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.24 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 6 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 79-83 (48.8%); 2018-2027: 53-79 (40.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 6-9 | 40.0% |
| 2025 | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 3-11 | 21.4% |
| 2023 | 4-11 | 26.7% |
| 2022 | 7-7 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 6-9 | 40.0% |
| 2020 | 4-9-1 | 30.8% |
| 2019 | 7-6-1 | 53.8% |
| 2018 | 7-9 | 43.8% |
| 2017 | 9-7 | 56.3% |
| 2016 | 7-10 | 41.2% |
| 2015 | 8-6 | 57.1% |
| 2014 | 7-10 | 41.2% |
| 2013 | 11-6-1 | 64.7% |
| 2012 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
| 2011 | 7-9 | 43.8% |
| 2010 | 7-10-1 | 41.2% |
| 2009 | 5-13 | 27.8% |
| 2008 | 12-5 | 70.6% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Sacramento Kings?
132-162-5 against the spread (44.9%) in 299 team-games since 2007-08, 138-161 straight up and 152-142-5 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 6 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 79-83 (48.8%); 2018-2027: 53-79 (40.2%).