NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 1,964 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 947-985-31 (49.0%)
Straight up: 1004-960 (51.1%)
Over/under: 988-954-21 (50.9% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.46 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.7%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 407-417 (49.4%); 2018-2027: 540-568 (48.7%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: IND vs ATL
- 2026-11-02: BKN at NY
- 2026-11-02: ORL vs WSH
- 2026-11-02: BOS at HOU
- 2026-11-02: GS vs PHX
- 2026-11-02: LAL vs MIA
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2026 | 74-71 | 51.0% |
| 2025 | 64-85-1 | 43.0% |
| 2024 | 64-79-2 | 44.8% |
| 2023 | 60-46-2 | 56.6% |
| 2022 | 48-80-2 | 37.5% |
| 2021 | 84-67 | 55.6% |
| 2020 | 44-43-6 | 50.6% |
| 2019 | 50-51-1 | 49.5% |
| 2018 | 48-43-2 | 52.7% |
| 2017 | 48-42-2 | 53.3% |
| 2016 | 49-40-1 | 55.1% |
| 2015 | 37-37-3 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 31-41 | 43.1% |
| 2013 | 36-34-1 | 51.4% |
| 2012 | 57-68-1 | 45.6% |
| 2011 | 45-35-3 | 56.3% |
| 2010 | 28-45-2 | 38.4% |
| 2009 | 36-38-1 | 48.6% |
| 2008 | 40-37-1 | 51.9% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team?
947-985-31 against the spread (49.0%) in 1,964 team-games since 2007-08, 1004-960 straight up and 988-954-21 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.7%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 407-417 (49.4%); 2018-2027: 540-568 (48.7%).