NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: Houston Rockets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 62 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 28-34 (45.2%)
Straight up: 29-33 (46.8%)
Over/under: 31-31 (50.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.2 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 14-13 (51.9%); 2018-2027: 14-21 (40.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2025 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2023 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2021 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2020 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2015 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team for the Houston Rockets?
28-34 against the spread (45.2%) in 62 team-games since 2007-08, 29-33 straight up and 31-31 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 14-13 (51.9%); 2018-2027: 14-21 (40.0%).