NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: Milwaukee Bucks: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 65 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 30-34 (46.9%)
Straight up: 37-28 (56.9%)
Over/under: 37-27 (57.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.73 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 8-14 (36.4%); 2018-2026: 22-20 (52.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2024 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2023 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2022 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2021 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2020 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2019 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2018 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2013 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2011 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team for the Milwaukee Bucks?
30-34 against the spread (46.9%) in 65 team-games since 2007-08, 37-28 straight up and 37-27 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 8-14 (36.4%); 2018-2026: 22-20 (52.4%).