NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: Denver Nuggets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 69 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 24-44-1 (35.3%)
Straight up: 36-33 (52.2%)
Over/under: 41-28 (59.4% overs)
Average cover margin: -2.8 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 54 times. 2008-2017: 10-19 (34.5%); 2018-2026: 14-25 (35.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2025 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2024 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2022 | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2019 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2018 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2016 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 1-4-1 | 20.0% |
| 2014 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2011 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2009 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2008 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team for the Denver Nuggets?
24-44-1 against the spread (35.3%) in 69 team-games since 2007-08, 36-33 straight up and 41-28 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 54 times.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 10-19 (34.5%); 2018-2026: 14-25 (35.9%).