NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: Dallas Mavericks: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 62 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 29-31-2 (48.3%)
Straight up: 31-31 (50.0%)
Over/under: 24-37-1 (39.3% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.18 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.4%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 11-13 (45.8%); 2018-2026: 18-18 (50.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2023 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| 2020 | 4-2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2016 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2012 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2008 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team for the Dallas Mavericks?
29-31-2 against the spread (48.3%) in 62 team-games since 2007-08, 31-31 straight up and 24-37-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.4%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 11-13 (45.8%); 2018-2026: 18-18 (50.0%).