NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: Minnesota Timberwolves: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 67 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 33-33-1 (50.0%)
Straight up: 33-34 (49.3%)
Over/under: 36-31 (53.7% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.84 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 9-18 (33.3%); 2018-2026: 24-15 (61.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2025 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2024 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2023 | 6-1 | 85.7% |
| 2022 | 2-3-1 | 40.0% |
| 2021 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2020 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team for the Minnesota Timberwolves?
33-33-1 against the spread (50.0%) in 67 team-games since 2007-08, 33-34 straight up and 36-31 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 9-18 (33.3%); 2018-2026: 24-15 (61.5%).