NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: Washington Wizards: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 64 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 31-33 (48.4%)
Straight up: 20-44 (31.3%)
Over/under: 32-32 (50.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.69 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.6%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2018: 13-15 (46.4%); 2019-2026: 18-18 (50.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2025 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2023 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2014 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2011 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team for the Washington Wizards?
31-33 against the spread (48.4%) in 64 team-games since 2007-08, 20-44 straight up and 32-32 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.6%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2018: 13-15 (46.4%); 2019-2026: 18-18 (50.0%).