NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 46 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 21-25 (45.7%)
Straight up: 27-19 (58.7%)
Over/under: 18-28 (39.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -3.27 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 10-11 (47.6%); 2019-2026: 11-14 (44.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2024 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2023 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2013 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2011 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team for the Miami Heat?
21-25 against the spread (45.7%) in 46 team-games since 2007-08, 27-19 straight up and 18-28 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 10-11 (47.6%); 2019-2026: 11-14 (44.0%).