NBA Back-to-back vs a rested team: Toronto Raptors: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Tired legs against fresh ones. 59 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 25-32-2 (43.9%)
Straight up: 29-30 (49.2%)
Over/under: 34-25 (57.6% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.17 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 15-12 (55.6%); 2018-2026: 10-20 (33.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2025 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2024 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2023 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2020 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 0-2-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 5-0 | 100.0% |
| 2012 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2011 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2010 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA back-to-back vs a rested team for the Toronto Raptors?
25-32-2 against the spread (43.9%) in 59 team-games since 2007-08, 29-30 straight up and 34-25 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 15-12 (55.6%); 2018-2026: 10-20 (33.3%).