NFL Off an upset loss: Atlanta Falcons: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 77 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 36-38-3 (48.6%)
Straight up: 40-37 (51.9%)
Over/under: 38-38-1 (50.0% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.63 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.0%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2013: 19-12 (61.3%); 2014-2026: 17-26 (39.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2024 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2021 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2019 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2018 | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2013 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2011 | 2-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2006 | 3-2-1 | 60.0% |
| 2005 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2004 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 4-0 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the Atlanta Falcons?
36-38-3 against the spread (48.6%) in 77 team-games since 1999, 40-37 straight up and 38-38-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.0%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2013: 19-12 (61.3%); 2014-2026: 17-26 (39.5%).