NFL Off an upset loss: Kansas City Chiefs: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 79 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 36-42-1 (46.2%)
Straight up: 36-43 (45.6%)
Over/under: 35-44 (44.3% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.15 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2011: 15-20 (42.9%); 2012-2025: 21-22 (48.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-6 | 25.0% |
| 2023 | 4-1-1 | 80.0% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2020 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2018 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2016 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2010 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2006 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2000 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 1999 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the Kansas City Chiefs?
36-42-1 against the spread (46.2%) in 79 team-games since 1999, 36-43 straight up and 35-44 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 15-20 (42.9%); 2012-2025: 21-22 (48.8%).