NFL Off an upset loss: New England Patriots: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 71 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 41-29-1 (58.6%)
Straight up: 46-25 (64.8%)
Over/under: 30-40-1 (42.9% overs)
Average cover margin: 2.96 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 7 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2013: 21-14 (60.0%); 2014-2025: 20-15 (57.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2020 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2017 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2012 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2011 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2010 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2005 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 1999 | 0-2-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the New England Patriots?
41-29-1 against the spread (58.6%) in 71 team-games since 1999, 46-25 straight up and 30-40-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 7 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2013: 21-14 (60.0%); 2014-2025: 20-15 (57.1%).