NFL Off an upset loss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 78 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 38-36-4 (51.4%)
Straight up: 40-38 (51.3%)
Over/under: 37-41 (47.4% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.91 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.0%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2013: 25-15 (62.5%); 2014-2026: 13-21 (38.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 0-5-1 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2014 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2013 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2004 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2003 | 4-3-1 | 57.1% |
| 2002 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2000 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 1999 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
38-36-4 against the spread (51.4%) in 78 team-games since 1999, 40-38 straight up and 37-41 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.0%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2013: 25-15 (62.5%); 2014-2026: 13-21 (38.2%).