NFL Off an upset loss: Miami Dolphins: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 62 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 32-30 (51.6%)
Straight up: 27-35 (43.5%)
Over/under: 28-34 (45.2% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.81 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 20-19 (51.3%); 2013-2025: 12-11 (52.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2021 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2014 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2012 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2007 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2004 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2002 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2001 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2000 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 1999 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the Miami Dolphins?
32-30 against the spread (51.6%) in 62 team-games since 1999, 27-35 straight up and 28-34 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 20-19 (51.3%); 2013-2025: 12-11 (52.2%).