NFL Off an upset loss: Buffalo Bills: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 65 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 34-28-3 (54.8%)
Straight up: 37-28 (56.9%)
Over/under: 27-38 (41.5% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.99 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2013: 14-15 (48.3%); 2014-2026: 20-13 (60.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2024 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 3-1-1 | 75.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2015 | 4-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2013 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2005 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 1-2-1 | 33.3% |
| 2002 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2000 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 1999 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the Buffalo Bills?
34-28-3 against the spread (54.8%) in 65 team-games since 1999, 37-28 straight up and 27-38 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2013: 14-15 (48.3%); 2014-2026: 20-13 (60.6%).