NFL Off an upset loss: Minnesota Vikings: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 72 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 32-35-5 (47.8%)
Straight up: 29-43 (40.3%)
Over/under: 33-36-3 (47.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.87 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -0.3%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2011: 15-21 (41.7%); 2012-2025: 17-14 (54.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2024 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2019 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2013 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 2-0-2 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2003 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2002 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2000 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 1999 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the Minnesota Vikings?
32-35-5 against the spread (47.8%) in 72 team-games since 1999, 29-43 straight up and 33-36-3 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -0.3%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 15-21 (41.7%); 2012-2025: 17-14 (54.8%).