NFL Off an upset loss: Green Bay Packers: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 84 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 42-40-2 (51.2%)
Straight up: 47-36-1 (56.6%)
Over/under: 45-37-2 (54.9% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.09 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.2%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 24-19 (55.8%); 2013-2026: 18-21 (46.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2025 | 0-6 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2023 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2021 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2020 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2014 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2013 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2012 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2011 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 1-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2006 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2005 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2004 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2002 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2000 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the Green Bay Packers?
42-40-2 against the spread (51.2%) in 84 team-games since 1999, 47-36-1 straight up and 45-37-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.2%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 24-19 (55.8%); 2013-2026: 18-21 (46.2%).