NFL Off an upset loss: Denver Broncos: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 88 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 41-44-3 (48.2%)
Straight up: 42-46 (47.7%)
Over/under: 35-50-3 (41.2% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.81 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.2%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2010: 22-20 (52.4%); 2011-2025: 19-24 (44.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2022 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2021 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| 2019 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2017 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2014 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2007 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2006 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2005 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2004 | 3-1-1 | 75.0% |
| 2003 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 3-2-1 | 60.0% |
| 2001 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2000 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 1999 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss for the Denver Broncos?
41-44-3 against the spread (48.2%) in 88 team-games since 1999, 42-46 straight up and 35-50-3 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.2%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2010: 22-20 (52.4%); 2011-2025: 19-24 (44.2%).