NFL Off a 14+ point loss: Green Bay Packers: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 48 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 22-22-4 (50.0%)
Straight up: 29-18-1 (61.7%)
Over/under: 24-23-1 (51.1% overs)
Average cover margin: 2.5 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2014: 11-13 (45.8%); 2015-2026: 11-9 (55.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 1-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2013 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2006 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2002 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2001 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2000 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss for the Green Bay Packers?
22-22-4 against the spread (50.0%) in 48 team-games since 1999, 29-18-1 straight up and 24-23-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2014: 11-13 (45.8%); 2015-2026: 11-9 (55.0%).