NFL Off a 14+ point loss: Atlanta Falcons: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 79 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 37-42 (46.8%)
Straight up: 34-45 (43.0%)
Over/under: 41-37-1 (52.6% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.65 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2011: 22-23 (48.9%); 2013-2026: 15-19 (44.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: ATL vs CIN
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2023 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2007 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2002 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2001 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2000 | 2-5 | 28.6% |
| 1999 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss for the Atlanta Falcons?
37-42 against the spread (46.8%) in 79 team-games since 1999, 34-45 straight up and 41-37-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 22-23 (48.9%); 2013-2026: 15-19 (44.1%).