NFL Off a 14+ point loss: Buffalo Bills: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 68 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 31-34-3 (47.7%)
Straight up: 27-41 (39.7%)
Over/under: 32-36 (47.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.83 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -0.1%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2011: 18-22 (45.0%); 2012-2025: 13-12 (52.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2017 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2016 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2011 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2010 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2008 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2007 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2006 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 1-2-1 | 33.3% |
| 2004 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 2-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 2000 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss for the Buffalo Bills?
31-34-3 against the spread (47.7%) in 68 team-games since 1999, 27-41 straight up and 32-36 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -0.1%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 18-22 (45.0%); 2012-2025: 13-12 (52.0%).