NFL Off a 14+ point loss: Denver Broncos: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 59 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 29-28-2 (50.9%)
Straight up: 29-30 (49.2%)
Over/under: 33-25-1 (56.9% overs)
Average cover margin: 1.1 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.9%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2014: 14-19 (42.4%); 2015-2026: 15-9 (62.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2020 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2019 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2010 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2008 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2007 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2005 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss for the Denver Broncos?
29-28-2 against the spread (50.9%) in 59 team-games since 1999, 29-30 straight up and 33-25-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.9%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2014: 14-19 (42.4%); 2015-2026: 15-9 (62.5%).