NFL Off a 14+ point loss: Houston Texans: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 82 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 40-39-3 (50.6%)
Straight up: 33-49 (40.2%)
Over/under: 40-41-1 (49.4% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.28 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.3%), so there is no edge to explain. 2002-2012: 21-20 (51.2%); 2013-2026: 19-19 (50.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2022 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2021 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2019 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 2-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2012 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2007 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2005 | 2-6 | 25.0% |
| 2004 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2002 | 4-2-1 | 66.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss for the Houston Texans?
40-39-3 against the spread (50.6%) in 82 team-games since 1999, 33-49 straight up and 40-41-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.3%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2002-2012: 21-20 (51.2%); 2013-2026: 19-19 (50.0%).