NFL Off a 14+ point loss: New England Patriots: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 40 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 26-13-1 (66.7%)
Straight up: 24-16 (60.0%)
Over/under: 22-17-1 (56.4% overs)
Average cover margin: 3.78 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 30 times. 1999-2010: 11-5 (68.8%); 2014-2026: 15-8 (65.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2005 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2000 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 0-0-1 | — |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss for the New England Patriots?
26-13-1 against the spread (66.7%) in 40 team-games since 1999, 24-16 straight up and 22-17-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 30 times.
Did it hold up?
1999-2010: 11-5 (68.8%); 2014-2026: 15-8 (65.2%).