NFL Off a 14+ point loss: Miami Dolphins: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 85 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 40-43-2 (48.2%)
Straight up: 38-47 (44.7%)
Over/under: 37-48 (43.5% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.8 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.1%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 20-14 (58.8%); 2013-2026: 20-29 (40.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2025 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2024 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2023 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2022 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2019 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2018 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 2-3-1 | 40.0% |
| 2016 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2015 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2014 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2013 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2007 | 3-2-1 | 60.0% |
| 2006 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2004 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2001 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2000 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss for the Miami Dolphins?
40-43-2 against the spread (48.2%) in 85 team-games since 1999, 38-47 straight up and 37-48 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.1%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 20-14 (58.8%); 2013-2026: 20-29 (40.8%).