NFL Off a 14+ point loss: Chicago Bears: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 75 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 37-35-3 (51.4%)
Straight up: 32-43 (42.7%)
Over/under: 30-44-1 (40.5% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.39 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.9%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 18-14 (56.3%); 2013-2026: 19-21 (47.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2023 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 1-3-1 | 25.0% |
| 2021 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2019 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2015 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2014 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2013 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2007 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2006 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 1-2-1 | 33.3% |
| 2003 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2000 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 1999 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss for the Chicago Bears?
37-35-3 against the spread (51.4%) in 75 team-games since 1999, 32-43 straight up and 30-44-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.9%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 18-14 (56.3%); 2013-2026: 19-21 (47.5%).