NBA Betting Trends Since 2007-08
Every NBA game since 2007-08, filtered by anything known before tip-off: spread, back-to-backs, rest, travel, road trips, streaks and more. Each trend shows its record against the spread, the chance that record is luck, and whether it held up in later years.
| Trend | ATS | Cover % | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home underdogs | 3937-4072-130 | 49.2% | 4027-4021-91 |
| Home favorites | 7635-7706-252 | 49.8% | 7656-7729-208 |
| Road underdogs | 7706-7635-252 | 50.2% | 7656-7729-208 |
| Road favorites | 4072-3937-130 | 50.8% | 4027-4021-91 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | 4681-4685-149 | 50.0% | 4774-4620-121 |
| Back-to-back vs a rested team | 950-986-31 | 49.1% | 990-956-21 |
| Rested team vs a back-to-back | 2195-2226-65 | 49.6% | 2243-2177-66 |
| Third game in four nights | 6551-6603-210 | 49.8% | 6573-6625-166 |
| 5th+ game of a road trip | 627-583-23 | 51.8% | 622-593-18 |
| First home game after a road trip | 5464-5633-170 | 49.2% | 5476-5655-136 |
| After a cross-country flight | 434-469-17 | 48.1% | 455-449-16 |
| West Coast teams in the East | 611-585-20 | 51.1% | 613-594-9 |
| Off a 15+ point loss | 3494-3324-107 | 51.2% | 3443-3405-77 |
| Off a 15+ point win | 3477-3416-113 | 50.4% | 3426-3487-93 |
| Off an upset loss | 3719-3530-117 | 51.3% | 3645-3637-84 |
| After an overtime game | 1281-1385-45 | 48.0% | 1338-1338-35 |
| On a 4+ game losing streak | 2119-2118-63 | 50.0% | 2128-2129-43 |
| On a 4+ game win streak | 2081-2187-80 | 48.8% | 2127-2161-60 |
| Four straight ATS losses | 1264-1220-41 | 50.9% | 1230-1268-27 |
| Underdogs of 10+ | 2124-2034-75 | 51.1% | 2121-2061-51 |
| Home favorites of 10+ | 1643-1745-61 | 48.5% | 1716-1687-46 |
| Division underdogs | 2302-2344-82 | 49.5% | 2263-2410-55 |
| Lost the last meeting by 15+ | 3412-3365-105 | 50.3% | 3402-3405-75 |
| First 10 games of the season | 2907-2913-94 | 49.9% | 2829-3014-71 |
| Playoff underdogs | 541-614-21 | 46.8% | 553-603-20 |
| Totals of 235 or more | 751-783-17 | 49.0% | 765-768-18 |
| Line moved 1.5+ toward the team | 3220-3241-101 | 49.8% | 3290-3177-95 |
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Most trends land near 50%: the closing line already knows them.