NBA Off an upset loss: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Lost last game as a favorite. 7,364 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 3718-3528-117 (51.3%)
Straight up: 4103-3261 (55.7%)
Over/under: 3645-3634-84 (50.1% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.38 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.0%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 1940-1838 (51.3%); 2018-2027: 1778-1690 (51.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: IND vs ATL
- 2026-11-02: ATL at IND
- 2026-11-02: NY vs BKN
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16-9 | 64.0% |
| 2026 | 188-184 | 50.5% |
| 2025 | 183-181-4 | 50.3% |
| 2024 | 203-164-6 | 55.3% |
| 2023 | 214-192-4 | 52.7% |
| 2022 | 205-201-7 | 50.5% |
| 2021 | 201-178-4 | 53.0% |
| 2020 | 187-168-12 | 52.7% |
| 2019 | 202-209-7 | 49.1% |
| 2018 | 179-204-15 | 46.7% |
| 2017 | 198-211-4 | 48.4% |
| 2016 | 200-178-7 | 52.9% |
| 2015 | 191-182-9 | 51.2% |
| 2014 | 209-188-8 | 52.6% |
| 2013 | 201-197-2 | 50.5% |
| 2012 | 168-151-4 | 52.7% |
| 2011 | 196-192-6 | 50.5% |
| 2010 | 194-179-7 | 52.0% |
| 2009 | 187-185-5 | 50.3% |
| 2008 | 196-175-6 | 52.8% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA off an upset loss?
3718-3528-117 against the spread (51.3%) in 7,364 team-games since 2007-08, 4103-3261 straight up and 3645-3634-84 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.0%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 1940-1838 (51.3%); 2018-2027: 1778-1690 (51.3%).