NBA Lost the last meeting by 15+: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Revenge spots after a beating. 6,878 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 3410-3363-105 (50.3%)
Straight up: 2691-4187 (39.1%)
Over/under: 3401-3402-75 (50.0% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.28 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.9%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 1681-1659 (50.3%); 2018-2027: 1729-1704 (50.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: CHI at PHI
- 2026-11-02: MIL at MIN
- 2026-11-02: HOU vs BOS
- 2026-11-02: TOR at LAC
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21-26 | 44.7% |
| 2026 | 209-208 | 50.1% |
| 2025 | 190-210-3 | 47.5% |
| 2024 | 197-175-6 | 53.0% |
| 2023 | 180-178-8 | 50.3% |
| 2022 | 214-191-9 | 52.8% |
| 2021 | 159-197-4 | 44.7% |
| 2020 | 180-153-6 | 54.1% |
| 2019 | 203-189-4 | 51.8% |
| 2018 | 176-177-13 | 49.9% |
| 2017 | 184-194-6 | 48.7% |
| 2016 | 178-187-3 | 48.8% |
| 2015 | 202-138-7 | 59.4% |
| 2014 | 201-146-9 | 57.9% |
| 2013 | 157-191 | 45.1% |
| 2012 | 134-151-4 | 47.0% |
| 2011 | 172-166-9 | 50.9% |
| 2010 | 151-176-6 | 46.2% |
| 2009 | 189-186-3 | 50.4% |
| 2008 | 113-124-5 | 47.7% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA lost the last meeting by 15+?
3410-3363-105 against the spread (50.3%) in 6,878 team-games since 2007-08, 2691-4187 straight up and 3401-3402-75 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.9%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 1681-1659 (50.3%); 2018-2027: 1729-1704 (50.4%).