NBA Underdogs of 10+: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Getting double digits. 4,228 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 2122-2031-75 (51.1%)
Straight up: 548-3680 (13.0%)
Over/under: 2121-2056-51 (50.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.33 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 1094-1016 (51.8%); 2018-2027: 1028-1015 (50.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: BKN at NY
- 2026-11-02: CHI at PHI
- 2026-11-02: MIL at MIN
- 2026-11-02: UTAH at SA
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8-4 | 66.7% |
| 2026 | 154-164-2 | 48.4% |
| 2025 | 132-158-8 | 45.5% |
| 2024 | 139-127-6 | 52.3% |
| 2023 | 90-82-5 | 52.3% |
| 2022 | 112-101-4 | 52.6% |
| 2021 | 69-82 | 45.7% |
| 2020 | 101-80-4 | 55.8% |
| 2019 | 110-124-1 | 47.0% |
| 2018 | 113-93-7 | 54.9% |
| 2017 | 120-105-2 | 53.3% |
| 2016 | 123-119-4 | 50.8% |
| 2015 | 134-116-6 | 53.6% |
| 2014 | 109-93-7 | 54.0% |
| 2013 | 85-95-2 | 47.2% |
| 2012 | 77-84-3 | 47.8% |
| 2011 | 97-77-2 | 55.7% |
| 2010 | 127-86-2 | 59.6% |
| 2009 | 112-109-4 | 50.7% |
| 2008 | 110-132-6 | 45.5% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA underdogs of 10+?
2122-2031-75 against the spread (51.1%) in 4,228 team-games since 2007-08, 548-3680 straight up and 2121-2056-51 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 1094-1016 (51.8%); 2018-2027: 1028-1015 (50.3%).