NBA Line moved 1.5+ toward the team: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The market moved their way (2007-08 to 2022-23). 6,562 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 3220-3241-101 (49.8%)
Straight up: 3819-2742-1 (58.2%)
Over/under: 3290-3177-95 (50.9% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.18 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.2%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2015: 1346-1398 (49.1%); 2016-2023: 1874-1843 (50.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 153-177-8 | 46.4% |
| 2022 | 302-286-9 | 51.4% |
| 2021 | 263-252-9 | 51.1% |
| 2020 | 194-198-10 | 49.5% |
| 2019 | 247-229-4 | 51.9% |
| 2018 | 225-216-8 | 51.0% |
| 2017 | 254-260-10 | 49.4% |
| 2016 | 236-225-6 | 51.2% |
| 2015 | 238-231-9 | 50.7% |
| 2014 | 190-211-4 | 47.4% |
| 2013 | 141-144-1 | 49.5% |
| 2012 | 136-139-3 | 49.5% |
| 2011 | 149-155-6 | 49.0% |
| 2010 | 152-149-4 | 50.5% |
| 2009 | 144-155-3 | 48.2% |
| 2008 | 196-214-7 | 47.8% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA line moved 1.5+ toward the team?
3220-3241-101 against the spread (49.8%) in 6,562 team-games since 2007-08, 3819-2742-1 straight up and 3290-3177-95 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.2%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2015: 1346-1398 (49.1%); 2016-2023: 1874-1843 (50.4%).