NBA Playoff underdogs: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Getting points in the postseason. 1,176 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 541-614-21 (46.8%)
Straight up: 369-807 (31.4%)
Over/under: 553-603-20 (47.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.54 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2014: 279-293 (48.8%); 2015-2022: 262-321 (44.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 40-53 | 43.0% |
| 2021 | 37-52-1 | 41.6% |
| 2019 | 40-40-2 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 32-47-1 | 40.5% |
| 2017 | 35-42-1 | 45.5% |
| 2016 | 34-51 | 40.0% |
| 2015 | 44-36-1 | 55.0% |
| 2014 | 52-34-2 | 60.5% |
| 2013 | 40-45 | 47.1% |
| 2012 | 34-45-4 | 43.0% |
| 2011 | 41-35-5 | 53.9% |
| 2010 | 33-47 | 41.3% |
| 2009 | 42-41-2 | 50.6% |
| 2008 | 37-46-2 | 44.6% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Boston Celtics · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · New Orleans Pelicans · Oklahoma City Thunder · Philadelphia 76ers · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA playoff underdogs?
541-614-21 against the spread (46.8%) in 1,176 team-games since 2007-08, 369-807 straight up and 553-603-20 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2014: 279-293 (48.8%); 2015-2022: 262-321 (44.9%).