NBA Third game in four nights: ATS Record Since 2007-08

A compressed stretch. 13,352 team-games since 2007-08.

Against the spread: 6543-6599-210 (49.8%)
Straight up: 6352-6999-1 (47.6%)
Over/under: 6568-6618-166 (49.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.13 points

Is it real?

Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.1%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 3841-3856 (49.9%); 2018-2027: 2702-2743 (49.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.

Upcoming games that fit

By season

SeasonATSCover %
202725-1956.8%
2026321-33948.6%
2025324-328-849.7%
2024293-312-948.4%
2023290-312-948.2%
2022300-309-1349.3%
2021372-351-851.5%
2020223-231-1549.1%
2019272-271-450.1%
2018282-271-2151.0%
2017339-366-1348.1%
2016359-365-1349.6%
2015407-380-1551.7%
2014380-370-1450.7%
2013403-374-751.9%
2012457-461-849.8%
2011391-381-1750.6%
2010375-371-1350.3%
2009352-385-847.8%
2008378-403-1548.4%

By team

Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards

Questions

What is the ATS record of NBA third game in four nights?

6543-6599-210 against the spread (49.8%) in 13,352 team-games since 2007-08, 6352-6999-1 straight up and 6568-6618-166 on the over/under.

Is this trend likely to be luck?

Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.1%), so there is no edge to explain.

Did it hold up?

2008-2017: 3841-3856 (49.9%); 2018-2027: 2702-2743 (49.6%).

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