NBA Home favorites of 10+: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Laying double digits at home. 3,445 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 1640-1744-61 (48.5%)
Straight up: 3014-431 (87.5%)
Over/under: 1716-1683-46 (50.5% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.24 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.6%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 896-959 (48.3%); 2018-2027: 744-785 (48.7%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: NY vs BKN
- 2026-11-02: PHI vs CHI
- 2026-11-02: MIN vs MIL
- 2026-11-02: SA vs UTAH
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3-7 | 30.0% |
| 2026 | 110-105-1 | 51.2% |
| 2025 | 110-91-6 | 54.7% |
| 2024 | 90-94-4 | 48.9% |
| 2023 | 61-69-5 | 46.9% |
| 2022 | 75-92-3 | 44.9% |
| 2021 | 54-50 | 51.9% |
| 2020 | 63-77-3 | 45.0% |
| 2019 | 100-98 | 50.5% |
| 2018 | 78-102-6 | 43.3% |
| 2017 | 95-93-2 | 50.5% |
| 2016 | 95-99-3 | 49.0% |
| 2015 | 96-113-5 | 45.9% |
| 2014 | 81-96-6 | 45.8% |
| 2013 | 90-78-2 | 53.6% |
| 2012 | 75-71-3 | 51.4% |
| 2011 | 72-90-2 | 44.4% |
| 2010 | 79-119-2 | 39.9% |
| 2009 | 98-101-3 | 49.2% |
| 2008 | 115-99-5 | 53.7% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA home favorites of 10+?
1640-1744-61 against the spread (48.5%) in 3,445 team-games since 2007-08, 3014-431 straight up and 1716-1683-46 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.6%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 896-959 (48.3%); 2018-2027: 744-785 (48.7%).