NBA Off a 15+ point loss: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The bounce-back spot. 6,920 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 3492-3321-107 (51.3%)
Straight up: 2994-3925-1 (43.3%)
Over/under: 3443-3400-77 (50.3% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.48 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.1%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 1732-1643 (51.3%); 2018-2027: 1760-1678 (51.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: OKC at CLE
- 2026-11-02: ATL at IND
- 2026-11-02: SAC at DAL
- 2026-11-02: MIL at MIN
- 2026-11-02: UTAH at SA
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15-12 | 55.6% |
| 2026 | 243-206-1 | 54.1% |
| 2025 | 202-211-2 | 48.9% |
| 2024 | 198-189-2 | 51.2% |
| 2023 | 169-151-4 | 52.8% |
| 2022 | 212-205-5 | 50.8% |
| 2021 | 175-190-2 | 47.9% |
| 2020 | 169-143-8 | 54.2% |
| 2019 | 194-201-5 | 49.1% |
| 2018 | 183-170-13 | 51.8% |
| 2017 | 195-171-9 | 53.3% |
| 2016 | 174-181-4 | 49.0% |
| 2015 | 159-174-12 | 47.7% |
| 2014 | 174-157-9 | 52.6% |
| 2013 | 186-161 | 53.6% |
| 2012 | 149-144-2 | 50.9% |
| 2011 | 152-151-9 | 50.2% |
| 2010 | 173-164-8 | 51.3% |
| 2009 | 183-155-5 | 54.1% |
| 2008 | 187-185-7 | 50.3% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA off a 15+ point loss?
3492-3321-107 against the spread (51.3%) in 6,920 team-games since 2007-08, 2994-3925-1 straight up and 3443-3400-77 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.1%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 1732-1643 (51.3%); 2018-2027: 1760-1678 (51.2%).