NBA Second night of a back-to-back: ATS Record Since 2007-08

Played last night. 9,508 team-games since 2007-08.

Against the spread: 4676-4682-149 (50.0%)
Straight up: 4219-5288-1 (44.4%)
Over/under: 4770-4616-121 (50.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.08 points

Is it real?

Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 2831-2827 (50.0%); 2018-2027: 1845-1855 (49.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.

Upcoming games that fit

By season

SeasonATSCover %
202717-1356.7%
2026223-21850.6%
2025209-236-547.0%
2024201-215-548.3%
2023197-195-950.3%
2022199-214-948.2%
2021242-205-954.1%
2020152-148-1550.7%
2019195-201-249.2%
2018210-210-1350.0%
2017238-244-949.4%
2016270-261-350.8%
2015300-269-1152.7%
2014272-281-949.2%
2013287-282-450.4%
2012303-309-549.5%
2011299-290-1150.8%
2010279-313-1347.1%
2009292-282-650.9%
2008291-296-1149.6%

By team

Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards

Questions

What is the ATS record of NBA second night of a back-to-back?

4676-4682-149 against the spread (50.0%) in 9,508 team-games since 2007-08, 4219-5288-1 straight up and 4770-4616-121 on the over/under.

Is this trend likely to be luck?

Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.

Did it hold up?

2008-2017: 2831-2827 (50.0%); 2018-2027: 1845-1855 (49.9%).

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