NBA Home underdogs: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Teams getting points at home. 8,136 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 3936-4070-130 (49.2%)
Straight up: 2807-5329 (34.5%)
Over/under: 4025-4020-91 (50.0% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.41 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.9%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 1939-2011 (49.1%); 2018-2027: 1997-2059 (49.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: CHA vs DET
- 2026-11-02: IND vs ATL
- 2026-11-02: LAC vs TOR
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13-21 | 38.2% |
| 2026 | 264-243-2 | 52.1% |
| 2025 | 246-247-8 | 49.9% |
| 2024 | 218-238-11 | 47.8% |
| 2023 | 223-204-7 | 52.2% |
| 2022 | 215-247-10 | 46.5% |
| 2021 | 223-257-6 | 46.5% |
| 2020 | 168-169-10 | 49.9% |
| 2019 | 218-209-8 | 51.1% |
| 2018 | 209-224-11 | 48.3% |
| 2017 | 216-207-5 | 51.1% |
| 2016 | 219-216-9 | 50.3% |
| 2015 | 207-222-4 | 48.3% |
| 2014 | 204-217-7 | 48.5% |
| 2013 | 191-199-1 | 49.0% |
| 2012 | 161-166-7 | 49.2% |
| 2011 | 190-191-7 | 49.9% |
| 2010 | 175-202-5 | 46.4% |
| 2009 | 193-189-6 | 50.5% |
| 2008 | 183-202-6 | 47.5% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA home underdogs?
3936-4070-130 against the spread (49.2%) in 8,136 team-games since 2007-08, 2807-5329 straight up and 4025-4020-91 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.9%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 1939-2011 (49.1%); 2018-2027: 1997-2059 (49.2%).