NBA Off a 15+ point win: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The letdown spot. 6,998 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 3472-3413-113 (50.4%)
Straight up: 4055-2943 (57.9%)
Over/under: 3422-3483-93 (49.6% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.06 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.7%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 1722-1723 (50.0%); 2018-2027: 1750-1690 (50.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: CLE vs OKC
- 2026-11-02: DET at CHA
- 2026-11-02: WSH at ORL
- 2026-11-02: MEM vs NO
- 2026-11-02: NO at MEM
- 2026-11-02: HOU vs BOS
- 2026-11-02: POR at DEN
- 2026-11-02: MIA at LAL
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14-10 | 58.3% |
| 2026 | 240-207-3 | 53.7% |
| 2025 | 219-184-12 | 54.3% |
| 2024 | 194-186-9 | 51.1% |
| 2023 | 160-157-7 | 50.5% |
| 2022 | 217-209-5 | 50.9% |
| 2021 | 175-194-6 | 47.4% |
| 2020 | 141-172-9 | 45.0% |
| 2019 | 202-201-5 | 50.1% |
| 2018 | 188-170-10 | 52.5% |
| 2017 | 186-198-2 | 48.4% |
| 2016 | 184-177-4 | 51.0% |
| 2015 | 184-166-1 | 52.6% |
| 2014 | 160-180-4 | 47.1% |
| 2013 | 178-168-4 | 51.4% |
| 2012 | 136-159-2 | 46.1% |
| 2011 | 146-163-8 | 47.2% |
| 2010 | 172-164-10 | 51.2% |
| 2009 | 180-164-7 | 52.3% |
| 2008 | 196-184-5 | 51.6% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA off a 15+ point win?
3472-3413-113 against the spread (50.4%) in 6,998 team-games since 2007-08, 4055-2943 straight up and 3422-3483-93 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.7%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 1722-1723 (50.0%); 2018-2027: 1750-1690 (50.9%).