NBA Division underdogs: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Getting points against a division rival. 4,723 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 2298-2343-82 (49.5%)
Straight up: 1413-3310 (29.9%)
Over/under: 2261-2407-55 (48.4% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.14 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.6%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 1241-1241 (50.0%); 2018-2027: 1057-1102 (49.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: BKN at NY
- 2026-11-02: WSH at ORL
- 2026-11-02: NO at MEM
- 2026-11-02: POR at DEN
- 2026-11-02: PHX at GS
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15-11 | 57.7% |
| 2026 | 128-113-2 | 53.1% |
| 2025 | 109-127-4 | 46.2% |
| 2024 | 118-118-7 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 114-120-4 | 48.7% |
| 2022 | 120-134-4 | 47.2% |
| 2021 | 98-100-4 | 49.5% |
| 2020 | 113-104-4 | 52.1% |
| 2019 | 132-135-3 | 49.4% |
| 2018 | 110-140-7 | 44.0% |
| 2017 | 131-125-3 | 51.2% |
| 2016 | 128-123-2 | 51.0% |
| 2015 | 133-118-6 | 53.0% |
| 2014 | 133-124-5 | 51.8% |
| 2013 | 129-118-3 | 52.2% |
| 2012 | 94-119-2 | 44.1% |
| 2011 | 135-114-9 | 54.2% |
| 2010 | 130-131-8 | 49.8% |
| 2009 | 118-135-2 | 46.6% |
| 2008 | 110-134-3 | 45.1% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA division underdogs?
2298-2343-82 against the spread (49.5%) in 4,723 team-games since 2007-08, 1413-3310 straight up and 2261-2407-55 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.6%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 1241-1241 (50.0%); 2018-2027: 1057-1102 (49.0%).