NBA Betting Trends Since 2007-08
Every NBA game since 2007-08, filtered by anything known before tip-off: spread, back-to-backs, rest, travel, road trips, streaks and more. Each trend shows its record against the spread, the chance that record is luck, and whether it held up in later years.
| Trend | ATS | Cover % | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home underdogs | 3950-4089-130 | 49.1% | 4039-4039-91 |
| Home favorites | 7654-7719-252 | 49.8% | 7674-7743-208 |
| Road underdogs | 7719-7654-252 | 50.2% | 7674-7743-208 |
| Road favorites | 4089-3950-130 | 50.9% | 4039-4039-91 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | 4691-4696-149 | 50.0% | 4785-4630-121 |
| Back-to-back vs a rested team | 954-990-31 | 49.1% | 996-958-21 |
| Rested team vs a back-to-back | 2198-2228-65 | 49.7% | 2244-2181-66 |
| Third game in four nights | 6564-6618-210 | 49.8% | 6586-6640-166 |
| 5th+ game of a road trip | 627-584-23 | 51.8% | 622-594-18 |
| First home game after a road trip | 5478-5646-170 | 49.2% | 5487-5671-136 |
| After a cross-country flight | 434-469-17 | 48.1% | 455-449-16 |
| West Coast teams in the East | 613-585-20 | 51.2% | 615-594-9 |
| Off a 15+ point loss | 3506-3337-107 | 51.2% | 3456-3417-77 |
| Off a 15+ point win | 3488-3430-113 | 50.4% | 3437-3501-93 |
| Off an upset loss | 3724-3540-117 | 51.3% | 3653-3644-84 |
| After an overtime game | 1285-1389-45 | 48.1% | 1340-1344-35 |
| On a 4+ game losing streak | 2129-2129-63 | 50.0% | 2137-2141-43 |
| On a 4+ game win streak | 2089-2198-80 | 48.7% | 2136-2171-60 |
| Four straight ATS losses | 1268-1225-41 | 50.9% | 1233-1274-27 |
| Underdogs of 10+ | 2130-2042-75 | 51.1% | 2125-2071-51 |
| Home favorites of 10+ | 1648-1747-61 | 48.5% | 1717-1693-46 |
| Division underdogs | 2305-2351-82 | 49.5% | 2267-2416-55 |
| Lost the last meeting by 15+ | 3428-3380-105 | 50.4% | 3416-3422-75 |
| First 10 games of the season | 2952-2954-94 | 50.0% | 2863-3066-71 |
| Playoff underdogs | 541-614-21 | 46.8% | 553-603-20 |
| Totals of 235 or more | 755-783-17 | 49.1% | 767-770-18 |
| Line moved 1.5+ toward the team | 3220-3241-101 | 49.8% | 3290-3177-95 |
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Most trends land near 50%: the closing line already knows them.