NFL Off a 14+ point win: Buffalo Bills: ATS Record Since 1999
The letdown spot. 88 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 42-45-1 (48.3%)
Straight up: 47-41 (53.4%)
Over/under: 42-45-1 (48.3% overs)
Average cover margin: 1.79 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.3%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 16-16 (50.0%); 2013-2025: 26-29 (47.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-09: BUF at MIN
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2023 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2022 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2021 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2020 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 2-1-1 | 66.7% |
| 2018 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2010 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2007 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2006 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| 2003 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2000 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point win for the Buffalo Bills?
42-45-1 against the spread (48.3%) in 88 team-games since 1999, 47-41 straight up and 42-45-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.3%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 16-16 (50.0%); 2013-2025: 26-29 (47.3%).