NFL Off a 14+ point win: Washington Commanders: ATS Record Since 1999
The letdown spot. 42 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 17-24-1 (41.5%)
Straight up: 16-26 (38.1%)
Over/under: 25-16-1 (61.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -4.43 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 5 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2011: 9-10 (47.4%); 2012-2025: 8-14 (36.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: WAS vs LA
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2014 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2012 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2006 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2005 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point win for the Washington Commanders?
17-24-1 against the spread (41.5%) in 42 team-games since 1999, 16-26 straight up and 25-16-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 5 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 9-10 (47.4%); 2012-2025: 8-14 (36.4%).