NFL Off a 14+ point win: Atlanta Falcons: ATS Record Since 1999
The letdown spot. 68 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 23-45 (33.8%)
Straight up: 30-38 (44.1%)
Over/under: 31-35-2 (47.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -4 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 106 times. 1999-2012: 14-24 (36.8%); 2014-2026: 9-21 (30.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2018 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2010 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2009 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2001 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point win for the Atlanta Falcons?
23-45 against the spread (33.8%) in 68 team-games since 1999, 30-38 straight up and 31-35-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 106 times.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 14-24 (36.8%); 2014-2026: 9-21 (30.0%).