NFL Off a 14+ point win: New England Patriots: ATS Record Since 1999
The letdown spot. 149 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 85-60-4 (58.6%)
Straight up: 117-32 (78.5%)
Over/under: 87-61-1 (58.8% overs)
Average cover margin: 2.99 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 16 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2012: 42-29 (59.2%); 2013-2026: 43-31 (58.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2024 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2020 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 4-3-1 | 57.1% |
| 2018 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2017 | 6-3 | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 7-2 | 77.8% |
| 2015 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| 2013 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2012 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2008 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 7-4 | 63.6% |
| 2006 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2005 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2004 | 8-2 | 80.0% |
| 2003 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2002 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2001 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| 1999 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point win for the New England Patriots?
85-60-4 against the spread (58.6%) in 149 team-games since 1999, 117-32 straight up and 87-61-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 16 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 42-29 (59.2%); 2013-2026: 43-31 (58.1%).